Category: Market Update

“I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” (Sir Isaac Newton, after losing a fortune in the South Sea Bubble, 1720) Newton’s post-South Sea Bubble lament in the 17th century feels timely again. This week, market historian Edward Chancellor warned in a Reuters column that the 2021 “Everything…
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This year, just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. But despite the turmoil markets have shown remarkable resilience. Time and again, investors have been confronted with events that seemed destined to derail global growth, only for fundamentals to reassert themselves. As wars, technology, and economic policy continue to pull markets in different directions, one question remains: why do markets keep ending up in almost exactly the same place?

Since the year dot, narratives have driven investor sentiment. June’s narrative was largely positive for South Africa as investors uprated our investment potential, but it was decidedly rocky for US investors, with chipmakers leading stock markets to heady highs before driving them down to disconcerting lows.

Since bombs first fell on Iran in late February, causing most asset prices to tumble, the question on everyone’s lips has been: How long will the war last? The truth is nobody knows.
With intense uncertainty about the endgame of the war now the biggest factor in global financial markets, here are five key considerations for investors when it seems there’s no end in sight.

On so-called Liberation Day last year, investors got a taste of the uncertainty to come from Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff decisions.
In February, the landmark Supreme Court ruling reining in the US President’s tariff powers was initially greeted with excitement. But Trump swiftly announced a global 10% tariff, before upping it to 15%. This highlights the nature of the perma-crisis we are living through: it’s the relentless uncertainty, not the tariffs themselves, that inflicts the most serious damage. Find out what that means for investors.

Gold broke through the psychologically significant $4 000-per-ounce barrier, surging over 25% and trading above $4 300 in late October. This rally represents a fundamental shift in how global investors view wealth preservation in an increasingly uncertain world. The gold price’s record rally has been driven by a perfect storm of factors: President Trump’s aggressive…
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When President Trump’s 30% tariffs on South African goods took effect on 1 August, many analysts braced for a market meltdown. Instead, the JSE All-Share Index hardly moved on the day and went on to climb from around 98 500 to 101 859 at the time of writing – a solid 3.5% gain during the…
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