“The only certainty is that nothing is certain.” (Pliny the Elder) For decades, US Treasuries (government bonds) and the US dollar have been the world’s primary safe-haven assets. Investors have been able to rely on them to hold their value due to America’s status as the world’s leading democracy, with deep, liquid markets and a…
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January has been a volatile month for global and SA equities. Stock markets experienced a “Trump bump” after his inauguration on January 20, driven by expectations of market-friendly policies. However, equities retreated to end the month with modest gains as investors weighed tariff uncertainties, shifting interest rate expectations, and growing concerns about the sustainability of…
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2024’s rally sets a high bar to beat The S&P 500 last year experienced its best two-year stretch since 1998, surging 23% in 2024 alone and breaking above 6,000 points. However, momentum slowed considerably in the final quarter as Trump’s election victory and a more hawkish interest rate outlook introduced new uncertainties to the world…
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While initial enthusiasm surrounding Trump’s likely market-friendly economic policies drove the S&P 500 index above 6,000 points for the first time, investors are now carefully weighing the opportunities and risks ahead. South Africa’s JSE All Share Index fell behind, moving sideways during the month. Treasury pick calms some market nerves Markets generally welcomed Trump’s selection…
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Stock markets took a breather in the second half of October in anticipation of the US elections. The S&P 500 flattened out in the second half of October, leaving it less than 1% higher for the month, while the SA All Share Index gained 0.5%. Both markets have, however, notched up healthy double-digit gains for…
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It’s too close to call, so sit tight The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is running neck and neck, with Harris seen as slightly ahead after being widely considered the winner of their September debate. A recent CNN poll found Harris leading by a percentage point, coming in at 48% versus Trump’s 47%.…
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Magnificent Seven come tumbling down The Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google-parent Alphabet, Nvidia, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla) have been responsible for the lion’s share of the US bull market in equities since late 2022. So much so that a new term has made its way into market parlance: “bad breadth”. It refers…
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What happened in April? For the first time this year, investors got nervous about whether the stock market rally that began in October last year was at risk. Stock market volatility increased, a sure sign of increasing investor concerns. The so-called global fear gauge, the VIX Index, rose to almost 20 in mid-April before retracing…
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Investor sentiment turns sour Investors’ initial vote on the government’s Budget was positive with the rand firming and bond yields declining. But sentiment soon turned negative once the details and ramifications of National Treasury’s decisions were fully digested. Initially the rand strengthened to R18.825 against the dollar, gaining almost half a percent on the perception…
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2023 will be defined as the year where predominantly negative global economic expectations never materialised and most stock market analysts and economist forecasters were proved wrong. All eyes were on the impact the steep rise in interest rates would have on the global economy, with recession seen as an inevitable outcome. With equity markets already…
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