Since the year dot, narratives have driven investor sentiment. June’s narrative was largely positive for South Africa as investors uprated our investment potential, but it was decidedly rocky for US investors, with chipmakers leading stock markets to heady highs before driving them down to disconcerting lows.
Global markets are currently climbing a classic “wall of worry”, stubbornly rising against a persistent backdrop of uncertainty.
However, this rally is increasingly viewed as fragile, driven more by positioning and narrative than by a fundamental assessment of the real risks arising out of the Iran war.
Since bombs first fell on Iran in late February, causing most asset prices to tumble, the question on everyone’s lips has been: How long will the war last? The truth is nobody knows.
With intense uncertainty about the endgame of the war now the biggest factor in global financial markets, here are five key considerations for investors when it seems there’s no end in sight.
On so-called Liberation Day last year, investors got a taste of the uncertainty to come from Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff decisions.
In February, the landmark Supreme Court ruling reining in the US President’s tariff powers was initially greeted with excitement. But Trump swiftly announced a global 10% tariff, before upping it to 15%. This highlights the nature of the perma-crisis we are living through: it’s the relentless uncertainty, not the tariffs themselves, that inflicts the most serious damage. Find out what that means for investors.
January offered investors an early stress test for 2026. A rapid succession of geopolitical shocks, policy surprises, and market reversals left portfolios swinging sharply between risk-on and risk-off. Far from an anomaly, this turbulent start may well be a preview of the year ahead: expect policy uncertainty, geopolitical noise, and abrupt shifts in market leadership.…
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Gold broke through the psychologically significant $4 000-per-ounce barrier, surging over 25% and trading above $4 300 in late October. This rally represents a fundamental shift in how global investors view wealth preservation in an increasingly uncertain world. The gold price’s record rally has been driven by a perfect storm of factors: President Trump’s aggressive…
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When President Trump’s 30% tariffs on South African goods took effect on 1 August, many analysts braced for a market meltdown. Instead, the JSE All-Share Index hardly moved on the day and went on to climb from around 98 500 to 101 859 at the time of writing – a solid 3.5% gain during the…
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While President Trump’s unpredictable trade policies are continuing to create global market volatility, emerging market equities have attracted attention this year as investors embrace them as a welcome diversifier from the uncertainty and volatility of US-centric investments. The MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up almost 18% year-to-date, with foreign investors pouring money into India,…
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2025’s perfect storm began with President Trump exhibiting his trademark unpredictability, announcing sweeping tariffs that sent markets into a tailspin in April. When tariff fears peaked in April, the S&P 500 sold off as much as 17.8%, while the Nasdaq suffered an even steeper 23.4% decline from its highs. Oil futures fell to four-year lows…
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“The only certainty is that nothing is certain.” (Pliny the Elder) For decades, US Treasuries (government bonds) and the US dollar have been the world’s primary safe-haven assets. Investors have been able to rely on them to hold their value due to America’s status as the world’s leading democracy, with deep, liquid markets and a…
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